On August 9 and 10 of 2014 nineteen-inning games were played. This renewed memories of the Pirates dismal 12-29 record after their 19 inning victory at St. Louis August 19, 2012 and caused some speculation that the Red Sox, Angels, Tigers, and Jays might suffer from the load to their relief corps and fatigue. I've been meaning to take a look at this for a while so here's what I have so far. (the summary is that I found no fatigue effect) I looked at the Retrosheet games 1914-2013 and took only games in which the teams had at least 10 games played before and after the extra inning game. Then I found the team's W-L pct that year, the team's record in the 10 games before, and the team's record in the 10 games after.
For all 27543 such extra inning games the season average percentage was .500
the W-L before was 137334-137210 .500 [there were 886 ties in the 275430 games]
the W-L after was 137247-137347 .500 [836 ties]
When I looked at exceptionally long games (143 game longer than 18 innings)
I found season .500 before .507 after .489
The before was 713-693 the after was 697-728 so they differ by only 0.96 standard deviations, not statistically significant.
For moderately long games [14-18 innings] the difference was smaller, 12526-12512-192 .500 before and 12518-12625-87 .498 after.
For games of each length 10 through 22 innings
Inn #G season before after 10 12154 .500 .499 .499 11 06841 .500 .500 .501 12 03752 .500 .500 .499 13 02130 .502 .502 .502 14 01232 .503 .501 .499 15 00619 .497 .504 .491 16 00366 .502 .502 .499 17 00182 .504 .501 .513 18 00124 .495 .473 .497 19 00066 .517 .518 .486 20 00030 .495 .502 .497 21 00018 .489 .489 .492 22 00018 .475 .480 .475Some #G totals are odd because one of the teams had fewer than 10 games before or after the extra inning game.
I also broke these down into winning and losing teams. The team quality and before-and-after breakdowns are
Wins 13558 .510 68508-66653-419 .507 68526-66652-402 .507 Loss 13552 .491 66654-68452-414 .493 66621-68512-387 .493 Ties 00433 .499 02172-02105-053 .508 02100-02183-047 .490 For the games lasting more than 18 innings the breakdown is Wins 65 .519 318-329 .491 326-322 .503 (t-score 0.42) Loss 65 .480 332-312 .516 305-342 .471 (t-score 1.62) Ties 13 .510 066-062 .516 066-064 .508
Winning teams, before and after games lasting 10 innings through 20 innings
The t-score is the number of standard errors that the team dropped after the long game.
(if there is no difference then roughly 1 in 20 t-scores would be bigger than 2)
Inn #G season before after 10 6010 .508 30371-29530 .507 30366-29570 .507 (t-> 0.13) 11 3381 .510 17022-16699 .505 17176-16522 .510 (t-> -1.28) 12 1856 .508 09471-09033 .512 09342-09160 .505 (t-> 1.33) 13 1037 .511 05225-05216 .505 05232-05098 .506 (t-> -0.87) 14 0595 .514 03004-02927 .506 03015-02926 .507 (t-> -0.11) 15 0298 .506 01499-01467 .505 01455-01514 .490 (t-> 1.18) 16 0171 .506 00864-00843 .506 00831-00875 .487 (t-> 1.11) 17 0086 .519 00444-00415 .517 00479-00380 .558 (t-> -1.69) 18 0059 .503 00290-00298 .493 00304-00285 .516 (t-> -0.79) 19 0029 .531 00145-00143 .503 00141-00149 .486 (t-> 0.42) 20 0015 .505 00069-00081 .460 00077-00073 .513 (t-> -0.93)Losing teams, before and after games lasting 10 innings through 20 innings
Inn #G season before after 10 6012 .489 29599-30343 .494 29531-30424 .493 (t-> 0.43) 11 3366 .491 16510-17065 .492 16558-16996 .493 (t-> -0.45) 12 1849 .491 08981-09448 .487 09073-09369 .492 (t-> -0.89) 13 1050 .492 05244-05216 .501 05207-05271 .497 (t-> 0.64) 14 0595 .492 02958-02977 .498 02923-03008 .493 (t-> 0.61) 15 0297 .490 01496-01463 .506 01477-01481 .499 (t-> 0.48) 16 0171 .494 00842-00854 .496 00859-00844 .504 (t-> -0.46) 17 0088 .489 00433-00445 .493 00408-00468 .466 (t-> 1.15) 18 0059 .485 00259-00329 .440 00280-00309 .475 (t-> -1.20) 19 0029 .503 00152-00135 .530 00140-00148 .486 (t-> 1.04) 20 0015 .486 00082-00067 .550 00072-00078 .480 (t-> 1.22)
counting the number of t-scores for each of the ranges (-2,-1.501),(-1.5,-1.001),(-1,-.501),(-.5,-.001),(0,.499),(.5,.999),(1,1.499),(1.5,1.999) gives
-2.0 W -1.5 WL -1.0 WWWL -0.5 WLL +0.0 WWLL +0.5 LL +1.0 WWWLLL +1.5
The distribution does not look very different from what a no-effect random set of data would look like so if there is an effect it seems that it's small enough that more than a few thousand games are required to tease it out.
For games of at least 19 innings the results in the 143 games before and after. i.e. in the game before the extra-inning game (-01) the 143 teams won 69 games, lost 70, and tied 4. In the games immediately following the extra inning game (+01) the 143 teams won 68 and lost 75.
-10 68-75-0 .476 -09 69-74-0 .483 -08 81-61-1 .570 -07 72-70-1 .507 -06 68-74-1 .479 -05 69-73-1 .486 -04 75-68-0 .524 -03 78-63-2 .553 -02 67-75-1 .472 -01 69-70-4 .496 Long extra-inning game +01 68-75-0 .476 +02 69-74-0 .483 +03 81-61-1 .570 +04 72-70-1 .507 +05 68-74-1 .479 +06 69-73-1 .486 +07 75-68-0 .524 +08 78-63-2 .553 +09 67-75-1 .472 +10 69-70-4 .496With no effect we should see 2/3 of the results within -12 to +12 games over .500 and 95% within 24 games of .500. the actual tallies are 16 of 20 and 20 of 20.
In more recent seasons it has become more common to use several relief pitchers during the first 9 innings, meaning that bullpen might get more stressed in long games.
Restricting the data to the 20 year period 1994-2013 gives
Games of at least 19 innings: 20 teams expected W-L .509 Before 93-107 .465 After 90-100 .450 Winning teams 10, .523 Before 37-63 .370 After 47-53 .470 Losing teams 10, .495 Before 56-44 .560 After 43-57 .430
Games 14-18 innings 543 teams expected W-L .501 Before 2677-2753 .493 After 2726-2703-1 .502 Winning teams 271, .505 Before 1339-1371 .494 After 1360-1350 .502 Losing teams 272, .498 Before 1338-1382 .492 After 1366-1353-1 .502
For games of each length 10 through 22 innings
Inn #G season before after 10 3300 .500 .500 .496 11 1676 .501 .497 .498 12 0928 .500 .493 .502 13 0513 .503 .511 .498 14 0294 .504 .501 .509 15 0124 .498 .481 .494 16 0060 .501 .470 .497 17 0033 .498 .506 .503 18 0032 .498 .497 .481 19 0012 .532 .450 .433 20 0006 .491 .483 .567 21 0 22 0002 .423 .500 .200
The team quality and before-and-after breakdowns are
Wins 3492 .508 17600-17319-1 .504 17545-17366-9 .503 Loss 3486 .493 17193-17665-2 .493 17187-17664-9 .493 Ties 0002 .611 00014-00006-0 .700 00010-00010-0 .500 For the games lasting more than 18 innings the breakdown is Wins 10 .523 37-63 .370 47-53 .470 (t-score 1.44) Loss 10 .495 56-44 .560 43-57 .430 (t-score 1.85) Ties 0
Winning teams, before and after games lasting 10 innings through 20 innings The t-score is the number of standard errors that the team dropped after the long game. (if there is no difference then roughly 1 in 20 t-scores would be bigger than 2)
10 1650 .507 8353-8146 .506 8225-8271 .499 (t-> 1.39) 11 0840 .509 4201-4199 .500 4275-4124 .509 (t-> -1.15) 12 0466 .508 2364-2296 .507 2386-2272 .512 (t-> -0.48) 13 0255 .510 1306-1244 .512 1252-1296 .491 (t-> 1.48) 14 0147 .507 0750-0720 .510 0743-0727 .505 (t-> 0.26) 15 0062 .504 0277-0343 .447 0298-0322 .481 (t-> -1.20) 16 0030 .502 0144-0156 .480 0149-0151 .497 (t-> -0.41) 17 0016 .511 0085-0075 .531 0082-0078 .513 (t-> 0.34) 18 0016 .497 0083-0077 .519 0088-0072 .550 (t-> -0.56) 19 0006 .563 0023-0037 .383 0025-0035 .417 (t-> -0.37) 20 0003 .465 0009-0021 .300 0020-0010 .667 (t-> -3.05)
Losing teams, before and after games lasting 10 innings through 20 innings
10 1648 .492 8140-8339 .494 8127-8349 .493 (t-> 0.13) 11 0836 .493 4129-4230 .494 4073-4286 .487 (t-> 0.87) 12 0462 .492 2214-2406 .479 2274-2343 .493 (t-> -1.28) 13 0258 .496 1316-1264 .510 1304-1276 .505 (t-> 0.33) 14 0147 .501 0722-0748 .491 0752-0718 .512 (t-> -1.11) 15 0062 .492 0320-0300 .516 0315-0305 .508 (t-> 0.28) 16 0030 .499 0138-0162 .460 0149-0150 .498 (t-> -0.94) 17 0017 .485 0082-0088 .482 0084-0086 .494 (t-> -0.22) 18 0016 .498 0076-0084 .475 0066-0094 .413 (t-> 1.13) 19 0006 .502 0031-0029 .517 0027-0033 .450 (t-> 0.73) 20 0003 .516 0020-0010 .667 0014-0016 .467 (t-> 1.60)
For games of at least 19 innings the results in the 20 games before and after
-10 10-10 .500 -09 10-10 .500 -08 12-08 .600 -07 10-10 .500 -06 07-13 .350 -05 08-12 .400 -04 09-11 .450 -03 09-11 .450 -02 08-12 .400 -01 10-10 .500 Long extra-inning game +01 10-10 .500 +02 10-10 .500 +03 12-08 .600 +04 10-10 .500 +05 07-13 .350 +06 08-12 .400 +07 09-11 .450 +08 09-11 .450 +09 08-12 .400 +10 10-10 .500
After playing 19 innings August 9 the Red Sox won 4 in a row. Before the game the Red Sox were 3-7. Since the game they are 5-5.
The Angels were 4-6 before the game and 8-2 after.
After playing 19 innings August 10 the Tigers lost two more. Before the game the Tigers were 5-5. Since the game, 5-5.
The Jays were 4-6 in the ten games before the marathon.
After game they lost 4 in a row and have a record of 2-7.
The ten games win-loss strings before and after for these teams are
Bos LLLWLLLWLW, Lost 5-4 on road, WWWWLWLLLL
LAA LWWLWWLLLL, Won 5-4 at home, LWWWWLWWWW
Det LWWWLWLLWL, Lost 6-5 on road, LLWWLWLWWL
Tor WWLLLLWLLW, Won 6-5 at home, LLLLWLLWLW
The fours teams were 16-24 .400 before their 19 inning games and so far are 21-19 .525 after.
What are some other ways to look at the data?
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