JHR's Baseball Prospectus Predictions 1999
The
Baseball Prospectus is comparing player projections made by individuals using their intuition and knowledge to make educated guesses to predict player performance to projections made by computer programs. A
summary
of the results from 1998 is available at
their web site archives.
For 1999, they expanded the list of participants. This page lists my guesses for the 1999 performance levels of their list of players for you to laugh at.
Here are the hitters, projected BA/OBA/SLG followed by actual BA/OBA/SLG and the differnces between my predictions and the actual values:
Travis Lee .280 .370 .470 .237 .337 .363 .043 .033 .107
Tony Batista .275 .320 .470 .257 .335 .396 .018 -.015 .074
Matt Williams .260 .300 .460 .303 .344 .536 -.043 -.044 -.076
Jay Bell .260 .360 .420 .289 .374 .557 -.029 -.014 -.137
Steve Finley .250 .300 .425 .264 .336 .525 -.014 -.036 -.100
Javier Lopez .290 .330 .550 .317 .375 .533 -.027 -.045 .017
Ryan Klesko .280 .350 .500 .297 .376 .532 -.017 -.026 -.032
Bret Boone .250 .295 .375 .252 .310 .416 -.002 -.015 -.041
Walt Weiss .240 .350 .300 .226 .323 .315 .014 .027 -.015
Andruw Jones .280 .350 .540 .275 .365 .483 .005 -.015 .057
Brian Jordan .305 .350 .500 .283 .346 .465 .022 .004 .035
Mickey Morandini .290 .390 .375 .241 .319 .329 .049 .071 .046
Mark Grace .300 .400 .450 .309 .390 .481 -.009 .010 -.031
Henry Rodriguez .250 .310 .470 .304 .381 .544 -.054 -.071 -.074
Sammy Sosa .260 .315 .540 .288 .367 .635 -.028 -.052 -.095
Lance Johnson .270 .320 .370 .260 .332 .337 .010 -.012 .033
Sean Casey .310 .390 .490 .332 .399 .539 -.022 -.009 -.049
Barry Larkin .270 .365 .490 .293 .390 .420 -.023 -.025 .070
Greg Vaughn .220 .315 .400 .245 .347 .535 -.025 -.032 -.135
Todd Helton .320 .400 .550 .320 .395 .587 00 .005 -.037
Mike Lansing .300 .355 .460 .310 .344 .455 -.010 .011 .005
Neifi Perez .280 .320 .400 .280 .307 .403 00 .013 -.003
Daryl Hamilton .315 .400 .470 .315 .386 .422 00 .014 .048
Larry Walker .340 .420 .660 .379 .458 .710 -.039 -.038 -.050
Derrek Lee .280 .350 .480 .206 .263 .326 .074 .087 .154
Cliff Floyd .290 .355 .500 .303 .379 .518 -.013 -.024 -.018
Mark Kotsay .295 .375 .440 .271 .306 .402 .024 .069 .038
Mitch Melusky .295 .370 .470 .212 .316 .333 .083 .054 .137
Craig Biggio .310 .400 .490 .294 .386 .457 .016 .014 .033
Ken Caminiti .270 .360 .460 .286 .386 .476 -.016 -.026 -.016
Derek Bell .270 .325 .430 .236 .306 .350 .034 .019 .080
Adrian Beltre .280 .345 .460 .275 .352 .428 .005 -.007 .032
Gary Sheffield .325 .460 .590 .301 .407 .523 .024 .053 .067
Fernando Vina .285 .360 .390 .266 .339 .331 .019 .021 .059
Jeromy Burnitz .265 .350 .510 .270 .402 .561 -.005 -.052 -.051
Vlad Guerrero .320 .390 .570 .316 .378 .600 .004 .012 -.030
Rondell White .295 .360 .500 .312 .359 .505 -.017 .001 -.005
John Olerud .295 .395 .480 .298 .427 .463 -.003 -.032 .017
Mike Piazza .330 .430 .650 .303 .361 .575 .027 .069 .075
Edgardo Alfonzo .290 .375 .460 .304 .385 .502 -.014 -.010 -.042
Rickey Henderson .240 .360 .320 .315 .423 .466 -.075 -.063 -.146
Brian McRae .250 .350 .420 .221 .320 .349 .029 .030 .071
Marlon Anderson .250 .280 .380 .252 .292 .361 -.002 -.012 .019
Desi Relaford .250 .310 .370 .242 .322 .327 .008 -.012 .043
Doug Glanville .280 .330 .380 .325 .376 .457 -.045 -.046 -.077
Bob Abreu .280 .390 .450 .335 .446 .549 -.055 -.056 -.099
Jason Kendall .320 .410 .490 .332 .428 .511 -.012 -.018 -.021
Brian Giles .280 .415 .500 .315 .418 .614 -.035 -.003 -.114
Jose Guillen .280 .310 .450 .267 .321 .342 .013 -.011 .108
Tony Gwynn .305 .345 .490 .338 .381 .477 -.033 -.036 .013
Wally Joyner .295 .365 .420 .248 .363 .350 .047 .002 .070
Ellis Burks .250 .320 .450 .282 .394 .569 -.032 -.074 -.119
Barry Bonds .295 .440 .600 .262 .389 .617 .033 .051 -.017
Jeff Kent .260 .315 .480 .290 .366 .511 -.030 -.051 -.031
Bill Mueller .290 .390 .390 .290 .388 .362 00 .002 .028
Fernando Tatis .280 .340 .460 .298 .404 .553 -.018 -.064 -.093
Mark McGwire .270 .450 .650 .278 .424 .697 -.008 .026 -.047
J.D. Drew .290 .400 .530 .242 .340 .424 .048 .060 .106
Eric Davis .298 .360 .520 .257 .359 .403 .041 .001 .117
Ivan Rodriguez .325 .360 .500 .332 .356 .558 -.007 .004 -.058
Royce Clayton .280 .330 .370 .288 .346 .445 -.008 -.016 -.075
Tom Goodwin .295 .370 .340 .259 .324 .341 .036 .046 -.001
Juan Gonzalez .300 .345 .600 .326 .378 .601 -.026 -.033 -.001
Carlos Delgado .300 .400 .600 .272 .377 .571 .028 .023 .029
Alex Gonzalez .250 .300 .390 .292 .370 .416 -.042 -.070 -.026
Shannon Stewart .295 .400 .450 .304 .371 .411 -.009 .029 .039
Jose Cruz .260 .360 .460 .241 .358 .433 .019 .002 .027
Shawn Green .295 .350 .500 .309 .384 .588 -.014 -.034 -.088
Brad Ausmus .260 .320 .350 .275 .365 .415 -.015 -.045 -.065
Damion Easley .260 .320 .450 .266 .346 .434 -.006 -.026 .016
Brian Hunter .260 .300 .340 .232 .280 .301 .028 .020 .039
Juan Encarnacion .270 .320 .430 .255 .287 .450 .015 .033 -.020
Carlos Febles .275 .330 .420 .256 .336 .411 .019 -.006 .009
Johnny Damon .280 .345 .450 .307 .379 .477 -.027 -.034 -.027
David Ortiz .290 .370 .480 .000 .200 .000 .290 .170 .480
Marty Cordova .260 .335 .400 .285 .365 .464 -.025 -.030 -.064
Todd Walker .300 .365 .480 .279 .343 .397 .021 .022 .083
A.J. Hinch .260 .325 .400 .215 .260 .346 .045 .065 .054
Fred McGriff .270 .350 .420 .310 .405 .552 -.040 -.055 -.132
Miguel Cairo .270 .310 .375 .295 .335 .368 -.025 -.025 .007
Jose Canseco .240 .320 .550 .279 .369 .563 -.039 -.049 -.013
Mo Vaughn .315 .380 .600 .281 .358 .508 .034 .022 .092
Troy Glaus .275 .350 .475 .240 .331 .450 .035 .019 .025
Charles Johnson .250 .350 .470 .251 .340 .413 -.001 .010 .057
Delino Deshields .280 .365 .440 .264 .339 .364 .016 .026 .076
Will Clark .275 .355 .430 .303 .395 .482 -.028 -.040 -.052
Mike Bordick .230 .295 .360 .277 .334 .403 -.047 -.039 -.043
Albert Belle .305 .380 .625 .297 .400 .541 .008 -.020 .084
Jorge Posada .270 .370 .440 .245 .341 .401 .025 .029 .039
Chuck Knoblauch .300 .400 .450 .292 .393 .454 .008 .007 -.004
Scott Brosius .260 .330 .400 .247 .307 .414 .013 .023 -.014
Bernie Williams .330 .410 .550 .342 .435 .536 -.012 -.025 .014
Eric Chavez .290 .330 .500 .247 .333 .427 .043 -.003 .073
Ryan Christenson .265 .330 .380 .209 .305 .306 .056 .025 .074
Matt Stairs .290 .365 .515 .258 .366 .533 .032 -.001 -.018
Brady Anderson .255 .370 .450 .282 .404 .477 -.027 -.034 -.027
Jose Offerman .320 .410 .450 .294 .391 .435 .026 .019 .015
Darren Lewis .240 .315 .320 .240 .311 .309 00 .004 .011
Paul Konerko .280 .350 .470 .294 .352 .511 -.014 -.002 -.041
Mike Caruso .290 .325 .400 .250 .280 .297 .040 .045 .103
Frank Thomas .305 .430 .570 .305 .414 .471 00 .016 .099
Magglio Ordonez .275 .320 .420 .301 .349 .510 -.026 -.029 -.090
Roberto Alomar .330 .390 .485 .323 .422 .533 .007 -.032 -.048
Travis Fryman .280 .330 .440 .255 .309 .410 .025 .021 .030
Omar Vizquel .270 .345 .340 .333 .397 .436 -.063 -.052 -.096
Dean Palmer .250 .310 .480 .263 .339 .518 -.013 -.029 -.038
John Valentin .290 .380 .470 .253 .315 .398 .037 .065 .072
Troy O'Leary .300 .350 .475 .280 .343 .495 .020 .007 -.020
Carlos Beltran .260 .315 .450 .293 .337 .454 -.033 -.022 -.004
Jeremy Giambi .300 .390 .500 .285 .373 .368 .015 .017 .132
Assuming that I entered this years numbers correctly I get the following results for the 110 players:
My predicted average BA/OBP/SLG was .281/.356/.463, the actual was .278/.358/.456 so I was a little high on the BA and power and a little low on ``batting eye".
The average deviations in my picks for BA/OBP/SLG were 26.7/30.2/58.2 points.
If you eliminate David Ortiz (0 his 5BB, just 20AB) the deviations drop to 24.2/28.9/54.3.
The RMSE for BA/OBP/SLG was 40.47/38.7/80.3.
Without David Ortiz, these errors dropped to 29.7/35.3/66.2, a little worse than
last year's study average, 28.7/31.4/60.0.
The errors for ISA (OBP-BA) and ISO (SLG-BA) were MSE: 17.0/40.3, RMSE: 23.1/50.7.
Without David Ortiz, these drop to MSE: 16.1/38.9, RMSE:20.1/47.53.
The average of the errors in BA,ISA,ISO was, for MSE: 26.4, for RMSE: 32.4.
The MSE was slightly worse than the average 1998 study participant, the RMSE was slightly less than the average. Both were worse than the computer projections.
The errors in OPS were MSE: 81.9, RMSE: 111.7. Without Ortiz - MSE: 76.7, RMSE: 93.3.
I was surprised that I hit six battings averages on the nose, including three Rockies.
60 starting pitchers to project.
What we're asking for here is IP, ERA, K/9, BB/9 for each
pitcher.
Kevin Brown 240 2.20 8.50 1.90
Carlos Perez 210 3.60 5.00 2.10
Chan Ho Park 240 3.50 8.00 4.00
Ismael Valdes 180 3.50 6.80 2.60
Shane Reynolds 210 3.70 7.50 2.00
Darryl Kile 260 5.40 6.00 3.70
Pedro Astacio 200 5.80 7.20 3.00
Denny Neagle 220 3.60 6.00 2.00
Pete Harnisch 180 4.00 6.00 2.90
Kirk Rueter 190 4.00 5.00 2.70
Mark Gardner 200 4.30 6.50 2.85
Andy Ashby 200 3.60 6.80 2.25
Sterling Hitchcock 200 4.50 7.20 2.80
Woody Williams 180 4.50 6.70 3.30
Jason Schmidt 220 4.20 6.50 3.20
Curt Schilling 260 3.40 9.40 2.00
Rick Reed 210 4.00 5.00 1.20
Bobby Jones 195 4.10 6.00 3.00
Al Leiter 180 3.20 8.00 4.00
Scott Karl 190 4.50 5.20 2.10
Kevin Tapani 200 5.00 5.50 2.70
Steve Traschel 200 4.50 6.00 3.20
Jon Lieber 180 4.50 7.00 2.00
Greg Maddux 240 2.20 7.00 1.50
Tom Glavine 230 3.00 5.75 2.85
John Smoltz 200 3.00 8.50 2.75
Andy Benes 230 4.00 6.40 3.00
Randy Johnson 250 3.00 12.30 2.90
Todd Stottlemyre 210 4.20 7.60 3.40
Omar Daal 60 4.50 6.50 3.50
Roger Clemens 270 2.80 10.00 3.50
Andy Pettite 220 3.80 6.00 3.30
David Cone 200 4.00 8.50 2.30
Wilson Alvarez 190 4.20 7.20 4.00
Aaron Sele 200 4.60 6.60 4.00
Mark Clark 210 4.10 6.00 2.20
Scott Erickson 220 5.00 4.80 2.30
Mike Mussina 210 3.60 6.60 2.00
Juan Guzman 200 4.50 7.00 4.00
Pedro Martinez 240 2.70 11.00 2.30
Tim Wakefield 210 4.50 6.10 3.60
Bret Saberhagen 160 4.40 5.00 1.50
Justin Thompson 200 4.50 5.70 3.60
Willie Blair 110 5.50 4.90 4.00
Bryce Florie 90 4.50 6.30 4.00
Brad Radke 220 4.50 6.00 1.80
Kenny Rogers 190 4.50 5.00 3.00
Tom Candiotti 180 5.20 6.00 1.75
John Burkett 190 5.00 6.00 2.30
Tim Belcher 180 5.00 4.20 2.80
Chuck Finley 200 4.60 7.90 4.30
Ken Hill 45 5.00 5.00 5.00
James Baldwin 180 4.20 6.50 3.40
Charles Nagy 170 5.60 4.20 2.50
Dave Burba 190 4.50 5.80 3.10
Dwight Gooden 110 4.00 5.50 4.00
Jeff Fassero 230 3.70 7.00 2.50
Jamie Moyer 150 4.00 5.50 1.50
Pat Hentgen 50 6.00 3.00 5.00
Joey Hamilton 205 4.70 5.00 4.20